Our company is interested not only in descriptively examining the state correlates of ACA partisan polarization, but also in the manner county plan decisions influence public-opinion. Bear in mind that we expect the newest gap anywhere between partisans’ ratings of your ACA getting large in the lined up partisan surroundings (states where Democrats features pushed to own execution and Republicans has opposed it) and you may quicker from inside the misaligned partisan surroundings (states in which Republicans has backed execution).
Within data, we work on governors. As the utmost obvious county personal authorities together with most crucial to utilization of both the exchanges and you will Medicaid extension, governors have the meetme better potential to disperse public opinion with their stated ranking. Beginning with the insurance policy briefs provided with this new Kaiser Nearest and dearest Basis, i tasked trained look assistants which have confirming (compliment of mass media records) whenever governors inside the each county clarified social announcements of the prominent arrange for the exchanges and Medicaid extension. Towards exchanges, i composed dichotomous parameters to own gubernatorial notices in favor of county-work with transfers (by far the most “pro-ACA” implementation choice, accompanied in the 11 says as well as the District out-of Columbia), federally run transfers (hence add up to an excellent refusal to to visit county tips to help you implementation, followed inside the twenty-seven says), and you will condition-government “partnership” transfers (a crossbreed design among them, implemented regarding remaining 11 claims). To have Medicaid expansion, we authored an individual adjustable trapping whether or not the governor revealed help the variation from Medicaid extension, if the full extension forecast underneath the original legislation, and/or affected Section 1115 waiver designs discussed from the really Republican-regulated claims you to definitely went give which have extension. six
Our very own theoretic design assumes you to a high-profile statement because of the an option partisan shape including a great governor creates a long-term improvement in the fresh new governmental ecosystem in a condition. Hence, during the says the spot where the governor expressed service to possess a specific policy alternative, the relevant adjustable is coded 0 for everybody residence before announcement and 1 for the one-fourth where in actuality the statement was generated as well as in all the home after that. Per of these variables, brand new standard was the lowest-information ecosystem where the governor has not pulled a beneficial updates on implementation.
The newest communications regards to each one of people variables with the Republican governor variable identifies the essential difference between you to definitely scenario and one into the hence an effective Republican governor made a similar announcement (misaligned partisan policy environment)
Once the i expect the outcome out-of cues in order to differ based on brand new partisanship of governor, i include good dichotomous adjustable appearing whether or not the governor from inside the for every county try a Republican when you look at the per one-fourth. From the interacting it changeable on statement variables, we could distinguish anywhere between lined up and you will misaligned partisan rules environments. The newest component terms on the county exchange, partnership exchange, and you can Medicaid expansion variables signify a great Democratic governor has made the newest announcement under consideration (lined up partisan rules environment). The latest interaction label of one’s Republican governor variable as well as the federal exchange announcement variable makes reference to various other aligned partisan rules environment. 7
Manage Parameters and you can Repaired Outcomes
I tend to be enough day-different control variables. The first of those is actually a single-one-fourth slowdown of your ACA polarization measure, due to the fact i predict some extent from “stickiness” in public thinking regarding rules. We and manage to possess if or not and if the official registered otherwise inserted a keen anti-ACA lawsuit, many of which was indeed at some point consolidated on NFIB v. Sebelius circumstances. 8 The decision to file otherwise subscribe eg a suit is actually alone a laws from a state government’s purposes on the brand new ACA, albeit an even more uncertain you to, since the in several says the new initiator wasn’t the governor but the county attorney standard. Since anti-ACA and you can Republican county governments were prone to file otherwise subscribe legal actions, neglecting to account fully for so it adjustable could prejudice the polarizing impact off governors’ later on notices into Medicaid expansion or perhaps the exchanges. That it varying are coded similarly to the latest statement variables, where it is comparable to 0 through to the quarter the newest state registered otherwise entered a fit, and you may 1 after that.